Smartphone Market Exploding, Microsoft Winning, Most People Don't Know How to Use Them

via bargainpda.com

By brian

A new study from In-Stat shows the Smartphone market is set to grow 70% in 2005. Microsoft and Linux-based operating systems are expected dominate the market, taking share from RIM and not surprisingly, PalmSource.

"The market's growth will involve major shifts in share among the OS platforms," says Bill Hughes, In-Stat analyst. "The winners will be Microsoft and Linux. Their growth will be at the expense of Research In Motion (RIM) and PalmSource, although these organizations will continue to see their numbers grow."

Other core findings from the study include:

* The median number of applications that Smartphone users have downloaded is only one, and the ownership of PDAs, the devices that Smartphones are meant to displace, is twice that for Smartphone users as non-users.
* Consumers, as well as the industry, still lack a clear definition of "Smartphone."
* Many wireless organizations are wary of Microsoft's intentions with Windows Mobile. Microsoft is working to overcome the reluctance by the wireless industry by integrating the delivery of content to Windows Mobile-based Smartphones with its server software.

Taken in order, the application issue doesn't surprise me. I think most buyers of Smartphones get them for data access and don't need applications, other than what's included, for email and web access. I recently migrated to a Palm 700w and aside form the Microsoft Virtual Earth Mobile beta, I haven't installed anything. The other explanation may be that users are having to work too hard to find and download applications. So either the products are getting better, it's too hard to find and install applications, or more likely, a combination of both.

Their second point is dead on. Every time a stat about PDA and Smartphone distribution comes out, there's generally some sort of nonsense, like counting RIM devices as Smartphones but not Treos, which essentially do the same thing. That's the problem with allowing a technical term to be defined by marketing departments.

Lastly, I'm not sure which wireless organizations they're referring to, but Microsoft has done a good job of integrating Windows Mobile with Exchange and there's no fear of the service being turned off, a la RIM. There may be some trepidation regarding Microsoft, but not enough to hasten their growth in this market.

The bottom line is Smartphones are here to stay, replacing PDAs, traditional phones and even laptops in some cases. The growth won't cool any time soon either as manufacturers continue to improve the hardware and software platforms they're based on.